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Visa refusal rates by nationality

Published figures from the U.S. Department of State and UK Home Office, reproduced here for reference — not an estimate, not a third-party model.

ⓘ This is a nationwide statistical rate, not a personal probability. Your own outcome depends on your specific application, not just your nationality.

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US visitor visa (B1/B2) — FY2025 adjusted refusal rate

The "adjusted refusal rate" counts each applicant once by their final outcome in the fiscal year, so repeat applications don't distort the number. A higher rate reflects the nationwide pattern for that nationality — it does not predict any individual applicant's outcome.

NationalityFY2025 Rate
Source: U.S. Department of State, Adjusted Refusal Rates for B-Visas by Nationality, Fiscal Year 2025 ↗ — the official published source. Checked 2026-07-05.

UK Standard Visitor visa — refusal rate by nationality

Covers the year ending March 2026, for the 20 nationalities with the highest visitor-visa application volume. Nationalities outside the top 20 are grouped as "Other Nationalities" in the official release and aren't broken out individually — this is a real coverage limit in the source data, not an omission on this page's part.

NationalityRefusal Rate
Source: UK Home Office, Immigration System Statistics, Entry Clearance Visas — Visitor route, Year Ending March 2026 ↗, table Vis_06. Checked 2026-07-05.

Canada — Temporary Resident Visa (visitor) refusal rate

Canada's Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) does not publish an official per-nationality refusal rate table the way the US and UK do — only a national aggregate figure, plus separate open datasets on application volumes and visas issued by country that aren't matched to the same processing cohort and can't be responsibly divided into a precise per-country rate. What follows is the real national-level figure, not a per-nationality breakdown.

YearNational TRV Refusal Rate
202449.00%
2025 (year to date, as of the source reporting date)51.00%
Source: IRCC committee reporting to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration (CIMM), as summarized in third-party reporting citing that data — Visadecoder has not yet located and directly verified the original IRCC committee document itself, so treat this figure with slightly more caution than the directly-sourced US/UK figures above. Checked 2026-07-05. A formal Access to Information request to IRCC is understood to be the only route to a genuine per-nationality rate.

Australia — Tourist Visitor visa refusal rate by nationality

Covers the Tourist Visitor stream (subclasses 600, 676) for the quarter 1 April 2025 to 30 June 2025, for nationalities the Department of Home Affairs breaks out individually in this release. Nationalities not listed here are grouped as "Other countries" in the source and aren't available individually for this visa stream.

NationalityRefusal Rate
Source: Australian Department of Home Affairs, Visitor Visa Program Report, 30 June 2025 ↗, table 3.02. Checked 2026-07-05.

Schengen Area — short-stay visa refusal rate by nationality

The European Commission's 2025 short-stay visa statistics release names specific nationalities only where their refusal rate changed notably year-over-year — it is not a full per-nationality table the way the US, UK, and Australian sources above are. Of the nationalities the Commission specifically named, only two are on Visadecoder's tracked list; the rest of that release covered countries outside this list. A fuller per-nationality annex may exist separately and hasn't been located and verified yet — this is a real, stated gap, not padded to look more complete.

Nationality2025 Refusal Rate
Source: European Commission, Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, "Schengen short-stay Visa applications rise in 2025" ↗, published 28 May 2026. Checked 2026-07-05.
Scope note: this page now covers all 5 destinations, at varying depth: the United States and UK have broad per-nationality tables; Australia covers 8 nationalities; Canada is a national aggregate only; the Schengen Area currently has only 2 confirmed per-nationality figures, from a source that highlights outliers rather than publishing a full table. Deeper Schengen and Canada data are real, stated follow-up work.

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These figures are reproduced from the U.S. Department of State's, UK Home Office's, Australian Department of Home Affairs', and European Commission's own published statistics, and from IRCC reporting as cited above (or other clearly-noted related sources, with the caveat noted for that figure specifically). They describe nationwide patterns, not any individual's likelihood of approval or refusal. We make reasonable efforts to keep this data accurate and current, but errors, delays, or omissions can occur. Visadecoder is not liable for any loss or decision made based on this data, and this is not a substitute for guidance on your specific situation from a licensed immigration lawyer — always verify current figures on the official source.